In a dramatic transformation of Egypt’s arid landscape, the Future of Egypt project aims to convert vast swaths of desert into fertile farmland.

Stretching across an area equivalent to the size of Cyprus, this ambitious initiative promises to turn the arid Western desert into a green expanse of agriculture.

However, the project’s high cost and environmental impact have sparked significant debate and skepticism.

The Future of Egypt project, launched in 2014 shortly after President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s rise to power, seeks to reclaim 2.2 million feddans (approximately 9,240 square kilometers or 3,500 square miles) of desert land.

Satellite images from 2014 and 2024 illustrate the scale of the transformation, revealing hundreds of fields equipped with centre-pivot irrigation systems that rotate sprinklers over crops.

An artificial river, stretching 70 miles (114 kilometers) and costing over $5 billion, is nearing completion. This river is designed to deliver 3.5 billion cubic meters of water annually to the newly cultivated fields.

Despite the grand vision, the project has been met with both enthusiasm and criticism. The government’s plan to convert 16,800 square kilometers of desert into farmland by 2027 represents over half of Egypt’s total reclamation goal.

President al-Sisi has expressed his ambition to further expand the initiative, stating, “If we had enough water to cultivate 100 million feddans, we would do it.”

However, Egypt faces a severe water scarcity crisis, with an annual deficit of 7 billion cubic meters, according to the United Nations.

The country is also grappling with austerity measures due to a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 90%, exacerbated by extensive spending on infrastructure and military projects.

Critics argue that while the Future of Egypt project may create lush fields, it does not address the underlying issues of food-price inflation and water management.

Richard Tutwiler, former director of the Cairo-based Research Institute for a Sustainable Environment, questions the long-term sustainability of the project.

“They call it reclamation. It’s not reclaiming,” Tutwiler asserts. “It’s not like it used to be this way and now we’ve got to make it back this way.”

The desert sands, devoid of the nutrient-rich soils found along the Nile Valley, require substantial irrigation.

The challenge is that the water used for irrigation in the desert cannot be recaptured, unlike the Nile’s runoff that replenishes underground aquifers.

In contrast to the Nile Valley’s water recycling, the new desert fields rely heavily on groundwater reserves, which have historically flowed naturally to the surface in oases.

The Sisi administration has intensified efforts to pump this groundwater to the surface, but this practice is not without consequences.

The rate of groundwater depletion under the Western desert has reportedly doubled since Sisi’s tenure began, raising concerns about the availability of water for future generations. “If you use up all the water, they won’t have water in the desert,” warns Tutwiler.

Additionally, the increasing use of wells is causing a rise in groundwater salinity, a phenomenon that negatively impacts crop production and raises farming costs.

Agrarian sociologist Saker El Nour notes that salination is already affecting numerous desert agriculture projects, leading to decreased productivity and higher expenses.

With only three years remaining until the 2027 target, the government has achieved approximately 20% of its reclamation goal, covering around 3,400 square kilometers.

El Nour, however, believes that this figure may be overstated and that the actual amount of productive land could be significantly less than reported.

“Just because there’s a huge ‘greening of the desert’, it doesn’t mean that there’s a huge product coming out of this,” he asserts.

The Future of Egypt project stands as a symbol of Egypt’s ambitious efforts to reshape its landscape and economy. Yet, it also highlights the complex balance between development and sustainability.

As Egypt continues to invest heavily in this megaproject, the challenges of water scarcity, environmental impact, and economic feasibility remain critical concerns that need to be addressed.

The transformation of the Egyptian desert into farmland presents an impressive vision of progress, but the ultimate success of the Future of Egypt project will depend on its ability to achieve long-term sustainability while managing the economic and environmental challenges it faces.