Gulf states are expressing mounting concerns over the potential environmental and humanitarian fallout from Israel’s ongoing military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, as regional tensions continue to escalate following multiple confirmed attacks.
Since June 13, Israel has launched precision strikes on several Iranian nuclear and military installations, including sites in Natanz, Isfahan, Arak, Karaj, and Tehran.
The Israeli military says the campaign aims to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities and prevent the Islamic Republic from developing an atomic bomb — a claim Tehran has long denied.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed damage to uranium enrichment and centrifuge production facilities but reported no immediate radiological effects.
A strike near the Gulf coast in Bushehr — home to Iran’s only operational nuclear reactor — briefly triggered widespread alarm on Thursday when Israel claimed to have hit the site, before later retracting the statement, calling it a “mistake.”
Experts have warned that while the current strikes are unlikely to cause widespread radiological fallout, the risk of catastrophe remains if a fully operational reactor like Bushehr is damaged.
“An attack on Bushehr could cause an absolute radiological catastrophe,” said James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The IAEA noted that the heavy-water research reactor at Arak, also known as Khondab, was struck but was not yet operational. “There are no radiological effects reported so far,” the agency said.
Specialists argue that the radiological risks from these facilities are minimal unless enriched uranium or volatile chemical compounds are released into the atmosphere.
Peter Bryant, a radiation protection expert at the University of Liverpool, said most of the affected facilities are underground or not functioning. “Uranium is only dangerous if inhaled or ingested, and low-enrichment uranium isn’t very radioactive,” he explained.
However, chemical hazards still exist. Darya Dolzikova from the UK-based think tank RUSI warned that uranium hexafluoride (UF6), used in the enrichment process, becomes toxic when it reacts with water vapour, producing harmful compounds.
The severity of any potential contamination depends on factors such as wind speed and facility location — with underground sites generally posing less risk of widespread dispersal.
For Gulf states, the stakes are particularly high. Countries like Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE rely heavily — or entirely — on desalinated water drawn from the Gulf, making any contamination event potentially catastrophic for millions.
“In the UAE, over 80% of drinking water is desalinated. Qatar and Bahrain are even more dependent,” said Nidal Hilal, Director of NYU Abu Dhabi’s Water Research Center. “A nuclear or chemical contamination of Gulf waters could instantly disrupt freshwater access for hundreds of thousands.”
While Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE can draw water from other seas, smaller Gulf nations do not share that luxury. Experts warn that a disaster affecting desalination infrastructure — whether due to military strikes, natural calamities, or an oil spill — would cripple essential services in these densely populated regions.
As regional powers monitor the escalating situation, calls are growing for restraint and international mediation to avoid a humanitarian and ecological crisis in one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.