Petrol prices in the UAE are expected to undergo a slight adjustment in October, as global oil prices have remained largely steady in recent weeks. The UAE’s fuel price committee, which meets at the end of every month, determines the retail rates for petrol and diesel based on international oil market trends from the preceding month.

So far in August, the average closing price of Brent crude has been $67.03 per barrel — only marginally higher than the $66.90 per barrel recorded the previous month. This stability suggests that motorists in the UAE are unlikely to experience significant fluctuations in pump prices next month.

Currently, petrol prices in the UAE for September stand at Dh2.70 per litre for Super 98, Dh2.58 for Special 95, and Dh2.51 for E-Plus. The country deregulated its fuel prices in 2015, aligning domestic rates with global market movements to ensure transparency and competitiveness.

Fuel pricing plays a crucial role in shaping broader economic dynamics. Fluctuations directly influence inflation, household spending, and operational costs for businesses, particularly in transport-heavy sectors such as logistics and construction. Beyond land transport, airlines and shipping companies also depend heavily on stable energy costs to maintain global competitiveness.

According to Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, global oil prices have recently faced downward pressure due to positive developments in supply channels. A notable factor has been the agreement between Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies to resume crude exports through the pipeline to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.

“The deal is set to resolve a two-year payment dispute, unlocking around 230,000 barrels per day of additional supply at a time when the market is already facing surplus forecasts, weighing further on prices,” Valecha explained.

At the same time, geopolitical risks continue to add uncertainty to the energy sector. Ukraine’s intensified strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure and ongoing Western discussions about further restricting Russian oil exports remain significant factors influencing global supply and pricing stability.

For the UAE, these global developments feed directly into domestic pricing decisions. As one of the first Gulf nations to deregulate fuel, the country has created a pricing mechanism that ensures consumers and businesses reflect real-time shifts in international energy markets.

This approach enhances the UAE’s economic adaptability while supporting its broader competitiveness in global commerce.

Looking ahead, analysts expect that while October may bring only minor changes to UAE petrol prices, the medium-term trajectory will depend heavily on whether oil supply increases outpace demand recovery in key global markets.

For households and businesses alike, even small fluctuations can have ripple effects. Consumers may feel the pinch in transportation costs, while logistics operators and airlines adjust fuel surcharges to remain profitable.

Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to balance the need for market-linked pricing with broader inflationary concerns.

As the UAE fuel price committee prepares to release October rates, all eyes remain on Brent crude performance and geopolitical developments that could tip the balance in global supply and demand.