CIA Director William Burns said on Wednesday that the lessons learned by China from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not dampen its determination to invade Taiwan but rather made it recalculate “when” and “how” it would do so.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, Burns said, “It seems to us that from Beijing’s perspective, the war in Ukraine doesn’t really affect the question of whether, rather, when and how the Chinese leadership might choose to use force against Taiwan in the next few years.”
The US official played down speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping might make a decision to invade Taiwan later this year, specifically after an important meeting of the ruling Communist Party.
“It seems to us that such risks increase as this decade comes to an end,” added Burns, the former diplomat.
He suggested that Beijing would be “disturbed” by the course of the war in Ukraine, describing Russia’s invasion of its neighbour as a “strategic failure” for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who believed that his forces could defeat Kyiv within one week.
For the director of the “CIA”, one of the lessons that Beijing drew from this result is that “you cannot achieve quick and decisive victories if you do not receive sufficient military weight in the battle.”
He continued, “I think the lesson that the Chinese leaders and military learn is the necessity of mobilizing a dominant force a lot to achieve victory,” also stressing the importance of “controlling the information space” and preparing for possible economic sanctions.
Like other US officials, Burns emphasized that while China verbally supports Russia, it does not provide it with military support in its war in Ukraine.
The United States is concerned about the increasing Chinese military pressure on Taiwan in recent years.
China considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory and must eventually be reunified with the mainland by force if necessary.
