Egypt has delivered its second weapons shipment to Somalia in less than a month, signaling a potential escalation in the Horn of Africa.
The latest delivery, which occurred on September 23, was made by an Egyptian warship and included anti-aircraft guns and artillery, according to reports from Reuters.
This development could lead to a direct clash involving Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, the breakaway region of Somaliland, and potentially other regional actors.
The growing military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia has emerged amid rising tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Situated on the Ethiopian section of the Nile River, the dam has been a source of conflict since construction began in 2011, with Egypt viewing it as a direct threat to its vital water supply.
Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, including a U.S.-brokered effort in 2019, the parties have failed to reach a lasting agreement.
The situation escalated further when Ethiopia signed a preliminary agreement in January with Somaliland, allowing Ethiopia to lease land for a port in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence from Somalia.
This agreement angered Somalia, which considers Somaliland an integral part of its territory. In response to Egypt’s recent arms shipment, the Somaliland government expressed concerns over the possibility of weapons falling into the hands of extremist groups like al-Shabaab, which has been a persistent threat in the region.
Al-Shabaab, affiliated with al-Qaeda, has demonstrated its capability to overrun Somali military bases, exacerbating the security situation.
Expert analysts have raised alarms regarding the implications of Egypt’s military support for Somalia.
Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow and Editor of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal, stated, “Egypt’s shipment of weapons to Somalia runs the risk of dangerous weapons systems falling into the hands of al-Shabaab. The Somali government is weak, and al-Shabaab has proven capable of overrunning Somali military bases.
Additionally, Ethiopia has over 3,000 soldiers in Somalia to prevent al-Shabaab from gaining further ground. These troops may be withdrawn due to the dispute, further weakening the Somali military.”
Mariam Wahba, a Research Analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, added, “Egypt’s delivery of a second weapons shipment to Somalia underscores Cairo’s frustration with Ethiopia over the Nile dam. By deepening its military ties to and presence in Somalia, Egypt is signaling its readiness to confront Ethiopia militarily. This situation only heightens the security risk in the Horn of Africa.”
The geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa is further complicated by Somaliland’s strategic Red Sea access, which has gained importance amid Houthi attacks that have disrupted global shipping routes and severely impacted Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues.
Ethiopia’s interest in leasing part of Somaliland’s coastline is notable, as it is expected to establish a naval base. Somaliland officials assert that an Ethiopian naval presence will enhance maritime security in the Gulf of Aden, an area heavily impacted by attacks on commercial shipping launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
As tensions rise, the international community watches closely, aware that developments in this volatile region could have far-reaching consequences.