Syrian rebel factions launched a surprise offensive this week, advancing rapidly towards Aleppo city in one of the most significant operations against pro-Assad forces in years.

The campaign, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an al-Qaeda offshoot, has shaken the defensive lines of the Assad regime, capturing dozens of strategic villages and towns while inflicting heavy casualties on both sides.

“Deter the Aggression” Offensive Gains Ground

Dubbed “Deter the Aggression,” the operation has enabled rebel forces, supported by Turkish-backed factions, to seize more than 50 regime-held territories on the outskirts of Aleppo and eastern Idlib.

Clashes erupted in key areas such as Aleppo’s Rashidin neighborhood, with videos circulating online showing intense firefights and the rapid rebel advance.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the coalition of rebel groups has pushed within two kilometers of Aleppo city, underscoring the operation’s intensity.

Despite airstrikes, including heavy bombardments from Russian forces, the rebels managed to capture strategic assets such as T-72 tanks and take regime soldiers prisoner.

SOHR reported that Russian airstrikes on Friday killed at least 24 civilians in rebel-held territories, highlighting the escalating violence.

The offensive’s pace and scale have disrupted critical supply routes, including the M-5 highway connecting Aleppo to Damascus, further straining pro-Assad forces.

Targeting Strategic Locations

The rebel forces are reportedly encircling Saraqib, a critical junction connecting the M-4 and M-5 highways and a hub for Iranian-aligned forces in Syria. The battle for Saraqib appears to be a calculated move to weaken Iran’s influence in the region.

Iranian state media confirmed the death of Brigadier General Kiumars Pourahmadi, a senior military adviser, during the clashes in Aleppo, further signaling the offensive’s broader geopolitical implications.

While the rebels have claimed substantial progress, a senior Syrian security official disputed reports of advances into Aleppo city, asserting that battles remain confined to areas west of the city. Reinforcements have been deployed to bolster regime defenses as fighting intensifies.

Regional Instability Fuels the Offensive

The rebel campaign coincides with growing instability across the region, including Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The Lebanese militant group, a key Assad ally, has played a crucial role in maintaining regime control in Syria.

However, its ability to support Assad forces while simultaneously facing pressure on other fronts raises questions about the regime’s resilience.

Turkey, a backer of some opposition factions, has reportedly sought to contain the scope of the offensive, wary of further escalation amidst existing tensions.

Turkish sources suggested the operation stemmed from frustration over the lack of progress in de-escalation agreements, which have failed to prevent pro-Assad attacks on Idlib’s civilian population.

Reclaiming Depopulated Areas

A primary objective of the rebel operation is the recapture of territories depopulated during the Assad regime’s campaigns between 2019 and 2020. Over one million civilians were displaced during those offensives, which involved extensive Russian airstrikes.

Rebel leaders have indicated their intent to facilitate the return of displaced populations to these areas, though much of the newly captured land remains devoid of civilian presence due to ongoing hostilities.

The Human Cost of Conflict

The offensive has further exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in northwest Syria. The region, home to millions of displaced civilians, is already grappling with dire conditions, including limited access to food, healthcare, and shelter.

The intensified fighting and airstrikes risk worsening the plight of these vulnerable populations.

Russian airstrikes have not only targeted rebel-held areas but also struck civilian infrastructure, including marketplaces and residential neighborhoods.

Humanitarian organizations have warned of an impending disaster as fighting disrupts aid delivery routes and displaces more families.

Turkey’s Balancing Act

Turkey’s involvement in northwest Syria adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. While Ankara supports certain rebel factions, it also seeks to avoid a full-scale escalation that could destabilize the region further.

Turkey has maintained observation posts in Idlib under previous de-escalation agreements but has been critical of Assad regime violations that have targeted civilian areas.

Reports suggest Turkey has been working to mediate between rebel factions to prevent infighting and focus their efforts on countering regime forces.

However, the scale and speed of the current offensive may test Ankara’s ability to maintain influence over its allied groups.

Broader Conflict Dynamics

The ongoing conflict in Syria traces its roots to the 2011 uprising, which evolved into a multifaceted war involving local factions, regional powers, and global actors.

Rebel-held Idlib remains the last major opposition stronghold, symbolizing both resistance to Assad’s rule and the fragmented nature of Syria’s opposition forces.

The latest offensive underscores the rebels’ ability to regroup and challenge regime forces but also raises concerns about prolonged violence.

The Assad regime, supported by Russia and Iran, has shown no willingness to cede territory, while the rebels’ gains could provoke a harsh response, including intensified airstrikes and ground assaults.

Future Implications

The rapid rebel advance has reignited questions about the long-term stability of northwest Syria.

If the rebels succeed in holding their gains, it could mark a turning point in the conflict, potentially forcing the Assad regime to reassess its strategies. However, the risk of retaliatory offensives by regime and allied forces remains high.

The offensive also highlights the fragile nature of ceasefires and de-escalation agreements in Syria.

Without sustained international efforts to address the root causes of the conflict, including political reconciliation and humanitarian aid, the cycle of violence is likely to continue.

Conclusion

As the battle for Aleppo’s outskirts intensifies, the fate of millions of civilians hangs in the balance. The rebel offensive has demonstrated their capacity to challenge pro-Assad forces but also risks plunging the region into further chaos.

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this operation marks a significant shift in Syria’s protracted war or another chapter in its enduring tragedy.