TEL AVIV – Iran is grappling with what experts warn is an environmental catastrophe of historic proportions. The country is confronting an unprecedented water crisis that is rapidly escalating into a national emergency with potential ramifications for civil stability and economic security.

“Iran is drying up,” said Dr. Sharona Mazalian Levi, a senior researcher at The Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University.

In a stark assessment of Iran’s deteriorating environmental condition, she emphasized that water scarcity is now among the most urgent challenges facing the Islamic Republic. “We are witnessing a crisis that threatens the very fabric of Iranian society.”

Provinces at a Tipping Point

According to Dr. Mazalian Levi, the situation is particularly dire in several major provinces, including Tehran, Isfahan, Razavi Khorasan, and Yazd. Iran’s Energy Ministry declared last week that these regions are now in a state of severe water emergency.

One of the most alarming examples is the Karaj Dam, which supplies water to millions in the Tehran metropolitan area.

“The Karaj Dam is now at only 6% of its capacity,” Mazalian Levi stated, citing figures reported by Tasnim News Agency. “That means 94% of the reservoir is empty. This is no longer just an environmental problem—it is a national crisis that could spark widespread unrest.”

Images of the dam’s dry basin, once brimming with fresh water, are circulating widely on Iranian social media platforms. Mazalian Levi warned that if water scarcity worsens, it could become a catalyst for civil disorder, particularly in densely populated urban areas.

Mismanagement and Demographic Pressure

The roots of the crisis are deep and multifaceted. “Two of the most critical factors are poor management of the water sector and the immense population growth Iran has undergone,” Mazalian Levi explained.

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran’s population has surged from approximately 37 million to nearly 90 million people. That population boom, she noted, has placed unbearable stress on the country’s natural resources.

At the same time, outdated irrigation methods and aggressive over-extraction from aquifers have pushed water tables to dangerously low levels. The push for agricultural self-sufficiency following the revolution further compounded the issue.

“Religious and political leaders at the time encouraged a return to farming as an ideological and economic priority,” said Mazalian Levi. “But agriculture consumes over 90% of Iran’s water and the methods being used are inefficient and unsustainable.”

External and Internal Pressures

Complicating matters is the influx of undocumented Afghani migrants who have settled in Iran, adding to the demand for limited water supplies.

“Urban migration has intensified as people leave parched rural areas for cities, exacerbating the strain on already limited urban water systems,” Mazalian Levi added.

A critical international flashpoint is the Helmand River, which flows from Afghanistan into southeastern Iran.

According to a 1973 treaty, Afghanistan agreed to release 820 million cubic meters of water annually to Iran, with the option to reduce the flow during drought conditions. However, in recent years, Kabul has significantly cut off the flow, sparking tension between the two nations.

“This has worsened the situation, particularly in Sistan and Baluchestan Province,” Mazalian Levi noted. “It’s another layer of pressure in an already volatile situation.”

Desperate Measures and Public Anger

In response to the crisis, Iranian authorities have been forced to implement rolling water shut-offs, often without prior warning. In cities such as Ahvaz and Pardis, residents report receiving water for only two hours per day, with some households experiencing murky or muddy tap water.

“The lack of communication and transparency is fueling public frustration,” Mazalian Levi said. “People are documenting their conditions online—videos of faucets sputtering mud or nothing at all are going viral.”

Medical facilities are among those hardest hit. Hospitals are struggling to maintain hygiene and prepare for surgeries without reliable water access, prompting fears of a looming health crisis.

The agricultural sector has also suffered severe setbacks. Farmers are being driven to abandon water-intensive crops such as wheat and rice in favor of hardier, drought-resistant alternatives. Many have left farming altogether, migrating to urban areas in search of employment.

“This has led to a decline in crop diversity and threatens Iran’s food security,” said Mazalian Levi. “Fruit, vegetable, grain, and oil shortages are now being reported. With hyperinflation already straining the economy, reliance on costly imports could push millions further into poverty.”

The Ecological Collapse of Lake Urmia

Nature has not been spared from the water crisis. One of the most striking examples of ecological damage is Lake Urmia, once the largest saltwater lake in the Middle East. Located in northwestern Iran, the lake has shrunk dramatically—from 5,700 square kilometers to less than 1,000 today.

“The shrinkage is due to dam construction, decreased precipitation, and excessive groundwater pumping,” said Mazalian Levi. “The lake’s ecosystem is collapsing.”

Once home to a wide array of species—from Persian ibex and migratory birds to salt-tolerant fish—Lake Urmia is now a shadow of its former self. “Flamingos, ducks, and pelicans used to flock to the lake. Many have now disappeared, and with them the region’s biodiversity,” she added.

Residents around Lake Urmia are also facing health issues due to salt and dust storms originating from the dry lakebed. “These storms are causing respiratory diseases and damaging local agriculture,” Mazalian Levi noted. “Tourism and fishing—once thriving industries in the region—have all but disappeared.”

Government Response: Too Little, Too Late?

Despite multiple pledges from the Iranian government to restore Lake Urmia and address nationwide water shortages, little meaningful progress has been achieved. While some dams have been opened in an effort to replenish water flows, experts say the measures are insufficient.

“The challenge is immense, and the efforts so far are nowhere near enough to reverse decades of mismanagement and neglect,” said Mazalian Levi.

She also criticized the lack of cohesive national planning. “The government has appealed to the public to conserve water, but in a system where access is so uneven and unpredictable, these appeals are ineffective. Everyone is just trying to survive.”

The Future of Iran at Risk

With water scarcity reaching crisis levels, Dr. Mazalian Levi warned that the issue could be a decisive factor in determining Iran’s future stability. “This is no longer just an environmental issue. It is economic, social, and political.”

Iran’s water crisis, she stressed, must be treated with the urgency and seriousness it demands. Without comprehensive reforms—ranging from modernized irrigation to regional water-sharing agreements and sustainable urban planning—the Islamic Republic may soon find itself grappling with far more than just dry rivers and empty dams.

“This is a national emergency,” she concluded. “And unless immediate, coordinated action is taken, Iran’s future hangs in the balance.”